On Gambler's Optimism

Gamblers, derided by society, a bunch of degenerates who can’t control their emotions. Spending valuable cash on trips to Vegas, Atlantic City, Montreal, among many other destinations that provide that uniquely stressful experience of putting money on odds that are stacked against them. Yet, we still do it. Gambling, an industry based on stacking odds against players, is worth more than $100 billion in the US and still growing. This type of growth is most likely based simply on the optimism of gamblers. Although, yes, there are many reasons that may make people put their hard earned, or maybe somebody else’s, money on the line, we could boil it down to basic optimism. No matter how much of a negative person you are, how miserable you feel, you throw your money into the ring because you feel like there’s a chance. And at the point that you throw your money in, the probability of losing is outweighed by the potential feeling of winning. Let’s just say, we ignore reason for potential euphoria. Does that make sense? No, obviously. Is it true? 100%. A casino is built on the premise (fact) that you will lose more that you win, and we still go in. Our expectation of a positive outcome outweighs actual odds, even though we do not do the actual calculation in our head. But if we absolutely had to do the calculation before placing a bet, taking roulette odds of hitting 1 of the 35 numbers, it would go something like this:

Of course, you can adjust odds of winning in your favor by diversifying your bet, including other numbers or even betting on whole sections of the table. But the point is: the game is designed to make you lose more than you win, and you know it. Now, it’s not all bad news. Given that that some have this optimistic impulse, this optimistic nature, what if you could change the odds in your favor, say, outside casino, outside a racetrack? What if you had some insight into a void in our daily lives and you knew how to fill it? What if the casino was our economic system where you could place a more logical bet? Let’s say you have done your research and you believe you can profit from investing (betting) on a specific business in an area and industry that you understand. The odds could look something like this:

Now the odds don’t look so bad. The actual odds are unknown since you would have to use an estimate based on a similar venture and still there are just too many variables to consider. The only thing that’s for certain is your belief and your optimism about the opportunity. The idea drives you to not give up since you can keep adjusting the odds in your favor as you try to foresee drawbacks and act accordingly. This kind of casino seems more favorable. However, if the ideas of these type of gamblers (entrepreneurs) don’t provide value then they don’t profit. Which means that the only way that they can profit is if we buy in. Somehow, someway these people make our lives better when they come up with a new product, business or idea. Given a market where there’s competition, only the best product will survive or in other words, the product we choose to make our lives better will survive. That’s why we should thank these degenerates and their gambler’s optimism for believing that they can profit from their ideas. Which in the end will make our lives, if not easier, at least more interesting.

Healthcare Fight

The current push by the new administration to change or eliminate Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act is alarming. The repercussions of any roll back in program funding could have a large impact on the overall wellbeing of a great part of our population. Although the versions of the legislation have failed since the current administration took office, the trend points to more attempts at revoking a great part of or social safety net. The talk of change revolves around changing the way funds are allocated to states and, among other things, limiting the amount of Medicaid funds allowed per recipient. There are many potentially detrimental issues that arise from this approach since there are segments of the population that would require more care, i.e. the elderly, and potential situations or epidemics that would not be funded, for example some future version of the current opioid crisis. But let’s focus on the current situation of the affordable care act. Most people who had insurance before the act was enacted or even shortly after have seen a spike in the cost of their premiums. This is partly attributable to the pool of ACA enrollees that had preexisting conditions as well as many who did not have health insurance for a long time and now are catching up with their medical upkeep. This raises the question, what is the real price of health care? Is it the price before or after we had the new pool of enrollees under the ACA? I would answer by saying that we as a society benefit greatly by sharing in the cost of the population that benefit from ACA. Not only from a compassionate stand point but our society would benefit greatly by being a healthier society. Should we educate or youth to take healthcare more seriously at an early age? Maybe. Maybe that will help alleviate the burden of having to deal with conditions later on in life and all of the repercussions that come with that. Maybe. But for now the price that we pay for insurance is the new market price and if this price helps cover enrollees under ACA then it is a cost well worth the cause.

Food Truck Sense

“Where’s my seat? Do you see a seat? We can’t sit anywhere!” That’s right, welcome to the Food Truck craze that has taken over the US; don’t miss out. Although it seems like something new, food trucks have always been a very feasible alternative when looking at different culinary options. Up until recently they had served ethnic foods for the most part that were prepared by people from different parts of the world, sometimes having the whole family involved, and their whole purpose was to make a decent living in this country. Obviously these people do not usually have a lot of access to the means or loans necessary to have an elaborate food production. So the main objective was always the food itself and staying loyal to the essence of the food; what made it unique. Using few and simple ingredients these trucks are able to produce flavorful items that would have a big following. The following is mostly due to flavor but also affordability. See, if your costs are low you will probably be able to pass those savings on to the consumer and that’s what has traditionally happened with food trucks. Now look at the new crop of Gourmet Food trucks popping up with prices ranging from $12 to $15 and on for … a sandwich? ( Not Including a side or a drink, by the way) All the while you most likely will be standing up putting at risk your shirt and maybe even other items of clothing as you bite into this delicious slice of heaven. Short Rib Grilled Cheese Sandwich, sounds very good… actually really good. A burger with a piece of Foie Gras in the middle… need I say more? But if bought from a food truck you will probably be outside, with no guarantee of where you will eat or have any control over the elements. I’m all for this but my only question is, should we pay restaurant prices for food we’re not eating at a restaurant? What accounts for these prices? Well if you take in to account that a lot of these new Food truck owners are part of the new breed of chefs that culinary schools across the country keep churning out year by year, it should give you an idea. These chefs are debt-laden due to their time in culinary school which can run between $20,000 and $40,000 a year (CIA’s Tuition for 4 years runs over $140,000) and there usually is more debt here and there that should be accounted for. They will most likely have to have a prep kitchen due to the complexity of their dishes and their labor costs will be high as well, since you will have highly educated and skilled staff demanding wages in accordance to their preparation. All of these costs become part of the product, because after all they have to make a living and they are in business for a profit. So why are we willing to give up the comfort that we usually take for granted in a restaurant (Climate control, a seat, Table service among others) and pay the same to eat outside? Is it cool? Are we missing out if we don’t do it? Do we want to feel part of a movement of misfits that snub their noses at the establishment, saying “Hey, I’m going to cook my food in a truck”? Does it satisfy the inner rebel inside all of us? Is this feeling worth the premium we’re paying for these items? Maybe once, for me. But then again, I've done a lot of things once that I've regretted after.

The Psychology of Giving

I know is been a while. Too long for my liking but we’re back. It’s the season of giving and I just felt like I had to give a little. Giving makes me feel good and as far as I know most people feel good when they give as well. There’s a certain rush that comes when we give someone we love, or even a stranger, something unexpected. That moment when we’re part of the process and thinking “Are they going to like it? Did they suspect that I was going to give them that?” But either way there is satisfaction in giving that’s why this season is so popular around the world. There is a lot of mention of what we’re going to get, but maybe a little less about what we’re going to give. Maybe because as children during this season we would only receive and not be able to give as much. But as adults a whole new dimension opens up and that is of us giving and having a positive effect on someone else’s life, even if it’s a very small one. A smile, a card, a phone call or a present will most likely have a positive effect on someone (Unless they don’t like feeling appreciated, but I haven’t met anyone like that... yet) and in return have a positive effect on us. At the same time it’s a time for sharing and spending time with the ones you love and even the ones that you don’t love as much but, hey, they invited you over. Sure, there are many industries that benefit from this exchange, but doesn’t that just prove how alike we are as humans? That knowing that a certain set of positive emotions or the journey to find them will make us act a certain way? At the same time we’re free to give to the extent that we want and are capable of, we don’t have to overextend ourselves. So I wish all a Happy Holiday season and I really wish you enjoy it because a month from now we will be missing the gatherings, presents, food and even the feeling you had when you got that sweater you didn’t really like.

The Perfect Handshake

The say deals are usually sealed with a handshake, and they usually are but nobody talks about shaking hands, something we do every day. There are good handshakes, effusive handshakes, and handshakes that make you not want to shake a hand ever again. There are two sides to a handshake, the message that the person who offers the handshake is trying to convey and how that handshake makes the person who receives it feel. In “The Definitive Book of Body Language” Allan and Barbara Pease talk about their research into body language and have a section dedicated to the handshake and it is very eye opening. The book also talks about many other types of body language including posture, facial expressions, hand placement, etc. but we are concentrating on handshakes since it’s probably the most common at the beginning of any face to face interaction. They go into the different types of handshakes and their overall meaning. A limp handshake usually means lack of interest, an open palm or palm up handshake can mean submission and openness and means to convey the message that there is nothing to hide. A completely vertical handshake is mostly viewed as a message of equality, the person offering the hand sees the other person as an equal. Now, the palm facing down or tilted down handshake is another story. The person offering the hand does not see the other person as an equal and plans to be the dominant party in this exchange or relationship if he is not already that. This type of handshake is for the most part a subconscious message sent by offering party and that’s why it’s powerful to understand its meaning. You might realize the person’s intentions before that person realizes what they’re doing, so that would give you have a huge advantage depending on the situation you’re in. Even if the person is blatantly trying to let you know that he plans to dominate you, you can play along pretending not to know, getting an edge, and setting forth a classic game of poker, that’s just a beautiful thing. It is important to understand the handshake and research this topic even further because it can save a lot of time. By getting a quick insight into your counterpart you will be able to anticipate what their intentions are even before they fully express them, this may be easier than you think. Then you can make a quicker decision as to wanting to move further with this relationship, whether it’s personal or business and avoid risking your time, money and even personal happiness and in life those things are too precious to waste.

After all...

Oh it’s Christmas, my favorite time of the year. Yes, people have to start admitting it, you all like it. It’s the best time of the year because you get to share your love and appreciation for other people with gifts and friends and family gatherings. Even people who hate this time of year shouldn’t because even if you were a big &%&&$%% for most part of the year you will probably get some kind of a gift even if it’s just a card, somebody’s going to be thinking of you. It’s very different to Valentine’s Day since you don’t have to have a loved one next to you to enjoy Christmas. So if during Valentine’s Day you happen to be between relationships then give yourself some flowers because nobody else wants them (Mom’s don’t count, that’s simply your duty). Also during Valentine’s Day you might not really want to walk around telling people “Happy Valentine’s Day’, that’s just not well accepted. But during Christmas, ah, you can say it as much as you want to as many people as you want, it’s all part of the Christmas spirit. There are wonderful games such as Secret Santa that let you share presents with someone who doesn’t know who they’re getting the present from. So you might end up sharing your present with someone you’re not really crazy about but Christmas has allowed you to give that person a chance and share a nice moment together, isn’t that nice? This season also allows you to use your intelligence in different situations. During your gift giving through the holidays you might have to be a little technical and use the concepts of Game Theory to maximize the experience as well as your budget given the times we’re living right now. But regardless, I just love this time of year, it just brings out the best in all. But there a few grouchy ones out there that simply say that this is just another trap to make consumers spend money in things they don’t need making life even more superficial and our society even more shallow, right? To all of you I say stop being such an &%&&$%% and go out and make some friends, it will be worth your while... after all, it’s Christmas. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!!

Decision Obsession

So what are good decisions? I guess that in order to answer that question we got to look at who determines what good decisions are. So we basically break them down into two groups, decisions that are self-satisfying and decisions that are made to satisfy, please or meet the expectations of a larger number of people. For example, a guy randomly bumps into a girl who’s walking home with her groceries then they all spill to the ground before he realizes what happens. When he looks up he finds himself staring into the most angelical eyes he’s seen in his adult life, she’s startled, but not upset. He offers to walk her home, she says it’s ok, there’s no need, he insists. She thinks for a second and analyzes her sixth sense, should I let him help me? Her sixth sense does not raise any alarms so she says ok. He walks her home carrying her groceries, doing small talk, the walk is not very far and he notices that she lives two buildings across from him but does not say anything, he feels it would make her too uncomfortable. They get to her apartment and she thanks him, takes her groceries and goes in closing the door behind her. He stands there for another second knowing no matter how close he is to her right now an opportunity had just slipped away. Two nights later as he’s walking home he notices that there’s a building on fire, and it’s the girl’s building (yeah, that’s right, just like a movie). He looks around to see if he sees the girl with the groceries in the crowd that had gathered but he does not. He looks up and from his calculations the fire seems to be on the girl’s floor. Maybe she’s trapped he thinks. No time to think, he goes to one of the parked fire trucks, takes one of the capes and a hat and runs into the building. He runs up the stairs to her floor, fire and smoke surround him but he pushes on until he’s a her door. He yells out to her, she says she’s there. He asks if she’s all right, she says yeah, he pushes the door open and she’s standing there. He offers his hand and she takes it and they start the walk back to ground floor. Fire and smoke surround them but they keep moving. They get to the ground, coughing and catching their breath, she looks at him and asks him if he’s a fireman, and he says no, “I was just around”. Two days later they go on their first date, and everybody is happy for them. The hero who saved the girl is now going out with her, the papers are ecstatic, the hero deserves the best. But his decision was not made to be a hero, he just wanted her number. Now in this case his decision was self-satisfying, but it pleased the expectations of the masses, the hero gets the reward. So what kind of decisions are we making on a daily or lifetime basis? Are we satisfying our own desires, trying reach our own vision of ourselves, or are we making decisions based on what we think the masses or society expect from us? Societies are built on the dreams of individuals. If we give up our own vision to follow somebody else’s, is that really fair to ourselves? Is that really fair to society? Every success experienced in the history of the world was built on multiple failures, some extremely hard to surpass. So what are we afraid of? No idea is of any value if we’re not willing to persevere for it. That’s all I got… for now